Canadian economic activity erratic through 2016: RBC Economics
As the Canadian economy contends with softer than expected exports, weak business investment and effects of the Alberta wildfires, real GDP growth in 2016 is forecast to be 1.4 per cent, according to the latest RBC Economics Outlook report.
A decline of 1.0 per cent (annualized) in the second quarter will pose a setback, although the contraction is expected to be brief. RBC Economics anticipates that a recovery in oil production and rebuilding in fire-ravaged northern Alberta, along with a probable rise in exports, will boost growth in the second half of the year. Third-quarter real GDP growth is forecast at 4.0 per cent, slowing to 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter.
“This erratic roller coaster of economic activity means the Canadian economy is headed for another year of moderate growth,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC. “Canadian consumers are propelling the domestic economy, with auto and home sales at record or near-record levels, and at this point their debt loads appear to be manageable,” Wright said.
The oil-producing provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are still feeling the pinch of reduced business and consumer spending.
“It’s no surprise that energy companies continue to cut back, but a recent Statistics Canada survey on capital expenditures showed that companies outside the energy industry also plan to invest less this year, and that’s cause for concern,” said Wright.
Given the near-term volatility in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada will likely keep the overnight rate at 0.5 per cent for the rest of 2016. RBC Economics forecasts the Canadian economy will expand by 2.0 per cent next year as higher oil prices spur an increase in business investment.
Canadian dollar emulates jump in oil price
Oil prices brushed the $50/barrel level in late May and early June, thanks to falling U.S. production combined with temporary production outages in Canada and some emerging economies.
The Canadian dollar mirrored the second-quarter jump in oil prices, rallying more than eight U.S. cents from its January low of 68 U.S. cents. RBC Economics anticipates that oil prices will continue to rise in 2017 and the Bank of Canada will be in position to increase the overnight rate, both positive factors for the currency. The Canadian dollar is forecast to end 2017 at 80 U.S. cents.
Ongoing adjustments to lower energy oil prices will continue to result in a marked divergence in provincial growth rates in 2016 with a trio of oil-producing provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland & Labrador) contracting further and a trio of oil-consuming provinces (British Columbia, Ontario and Manitoba) seeing material growth. RBC Economics in fact raised its 2016 GDP growth forecasts for Ontario and B.C. On the other hand, it lowered its forecasts for Alberta and Saskatchewan in light of persistent weakness in capital spending in the energy sector, and in the case of Alberta, due to the significant disruptions caused by the wildfires.